An intriguing battle takes place on Sunday with Cardiff against Bristol City in something of a local derby. Whilst this isn’t the ‘big one’ for either of these teams, it is still one they believe they can win, and unlike ‘normal’ local derbies, this one should be more end-to-end as opposed to tight and cagey. Cardiff are averaging two goals per home game and just shy of three overall. For away teams, Bristol City are the team to follow with regards to goals, with six out of eight on the road featuring at least three goals, averaging roughly 3.40 goals. Bristol City haven’t kept an away clean sheet since April, and three of the last four head-to-heads also defeated the 2.50 goal line.
These two teams are under-performing this season based upon their Expected Goals (xG) count. Whilst this game presents 20th versus 13th, it really should be 14th against 8th if both Wigan and Brentford improved their outlay in the final third. As such, it has led to their games often being close encounters with little to separate the two. Wigan of course remain difficult to defeat at home, but recent away wins at QPR and Swansea proves what Brentford are capable of at their very best. Nevertheless, the reality is that Wigan’s Championship games average around 2.30 goals, with 9/15 finished under 2.5 goals, and Brentford’s average even lower with approximately 2.10, and 10/15 ending under 2.5 goals.
The FA Cup 1st Round is upon us and there is usually a good deal of value around if you fish around for it. The good thing about this game is that it is an all-League One affair, so locating the relevant numbers isn’t too much of a challenge. In terms of percentage, this encounter presents two of the top three in the English third-tier in relation to their games seeing both teams score. 9/14 for Doncaster and 13/16 for AFC Wimbledon. Therefore, the odds for this are a little lighter than ideal, but that is ultimately a reflection on its chances. These two combined have only failed to score in five league games this season, and the same can be said for clean sheets.
The bottom of League One takes on the top of League Two in this FA Cup 1st Round fixture with Accrington, flirting with the relegation spots, entertains a Crewe side looking to bounce back from a home defeat to arch rivals Port Vale, but are still in the play-off positions. Goals aren’t generally far away when Accrington are at home, with their league games in front of their own fans averaging 3.00 goals. It is slightly lower for Crewe’s away which is around 2.90, as well. Therefore, both teams to score is a bet we can jump onto here, even more so taking this into account. 9/16 on Accrington’s league games saw BTTS pay out, including 5/7 at home. Also, Crewe has seen 10/16 where each side has netted; one of the highest figures in League Two.
Certainly Hartlepool would rather not have to endure roughly 12-hour round trip to Yeovil this weekend, but the magic of the cup presents an opportunity for them to progress. This is an all-National League tie, and if a league game this would be 2nd versus 13th. Unsurprisingly, Yeovil are deemed favourites for this one. Hartlepool have however already defeated Yeovil this season, albeit at home. That game finished 2-1, another clash to see both teams score. That is again the play here to complete our FA Cup trio. Yeovil only have four clean sheets, which is testament to their attack
with them sitting in second. 13/19 has seen BTTS, whilst 12/20 of Hartlepool’s has, as well. Pool actually have one extra clean sheet, whereas both teams combined have scored in bar five of their league matches this season so far.