Weekend EFL Stats Pack: Swansea’s Slow Starts and Derby Days

Fleetwood v Blackpool BTTS - Yes
@ 1.89 with Bet365
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Northampton 'Over 1.5 Goals'
@ 2.05 with Paddy Power
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Brentford v Sheff Wed – Brentford Over 1.5 Goals (1.74)

Brentford are struggling for form but Sheffield Wednesday could be the perfect opposition to try and get themselves back on track. The Bees are ranked third in the league for Expected Goals (xG), and they always seriously knock on the door playing at Griffin Park. They really need the win after five without one, and they’ve netted two or more goals in four of their past six league clashes at home. The Owls faced Man City in midweek, so tiredness could be an issue, plus they’ve conceded three goals in three of their past four Championship encounters anyway.

Swansea v West Brom – 2nd Half Highest Scoring Half (2.13)

Swansea are a team that tends to come alive in the second half of matches in relation to the amount of goals they’ve been scoring. 60.87% of their Championship goals this season have in fact arrived after half-time, so it could be a cagey start from them considering they’re out of form anyway, plus they’re facing the current best team in the division. WBA have netted an impressive 27 goals following the 60th minute as well, so this is an encounter which has all the makings of being a late show either way.

Sunderland v Gillingham – Under 2.5 Goals (1.69)

Both Sunderland and Gillingham were enjoying a winning run of form until their last two matches. Each heads into this following a loss, so naturally it could be a little more of a mindful stance from these promotion hopefuls. Well, Sunderland are certainly a promotion contender, whilst Gillingham
really need to get on another run again. Gillingham, still, wouldn’t be so unhappy with a draw here, and neither are known for being free-scoring outfits. This is 20th versus 21st in the Over 2.5 Goals League One Table, so on that basis it should be a low-scoring contest.

Fleetwood v Blackpool – Both Teams To Score (1.89)

This local derby match in League One is one which really should not disappoint on the goals front. The reason being is that whilst there is a sizeable gap between the two in the actual league table, it is much closer when it comes to both teams scoring. This would be a top four battle if it was purely based on BTTS in League One this season. Both are averaging in the 60s in terms of percentage for their league fixtures witnessing both teams scoring. Blackpool will be unpredictable under new management, plus Fleetwood will go all-out for victory, like they achieved at Ipswich on Tuesday.

Crawley v Oldham – Both Teams To Score (1.85)

Crawley are always a good bet for both teams to score in League Two this season. So much so that if you can ever get a price around this sort of region then you really need to be taking advantage of it. The reason being is that of their 36 league clashes this season, 26 has seen them both score and concede within. This is just shy of 70%! Oldham aren’t actually too far behind with 21 of their 36 seeing BTTS pay out handsomely. Furthermore, eight of Oldham’s last 11 have also featured both teams scoring, so much so that this has to be rated the NAP of the EFL card this weekend.

Northampton v Mansfield – Northampton Over 1.5 Goals (2.05)

Mansfield have failed to win on any of their last six trips to Sixfields, and their form this season suggests that they face a longer wait to end that respective run. It has been a bad season all-round for the Stags, and whilst they are safe from relegation they sit just three spots above bottom side Stevenage. Northampton have got back on track after a poor run of form, and when they win they tend to win well. They’ve scored an average of 3.00 goals across their previous three home victories, plus they knocked three past Grimsby last weekend when winning on the road. Mansfield have shipped two or more goals in seven of their last ten in all competitions away from home.


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