Vitesse is the last side that Feyenoord wanted to come up against away from home. Van Bronckhorst’s Feyenoord have been on a woeful away run, whereas Vitesse are at their strongest when they play at home.
Vitesse v Feyenoord
Sunday 10th March, 13:30
Vitesse have been in incredible form at home this season. The home side have only picked up one defeat on home soil this season and that was against Ajax. Vitesse will fancy their chances against Feyenoord due to the fact that the Gelredome has been turned into a fortress this season, since Leonid Slutsky’s appointment as manager last summer.
The key to Vitesse’s impressive home form has been the amount of goals that they have scored. In twelve matches, Vitesse have scored twenty-nine goals which is an average of 2.42 goals per game. However, keeping clean sheets has been an issue for Vitesse as they have only managed one in twelve home matches. This has led to Vitesse dropping nine points at home through picking up three draws and a loss.
Due to Vitesse’s leaky defence, they have conceded seventeen goals at home in twelve matches which is an average of 1.42 goals per game. This has led to 83% of Vitesse’s games ending with both teams scoring, with Vitesse only failing to score in one match whilst playing at home.
Currently, Feyenoord sit in third position in the Eredivisie. At home they have won eleven games out of twelve, losing just once. With those stats you would be wondering why Feyenoord aren’t top of the table. Well the reason for this comes from their woeful away form in the league this season. Away from home, Feyenoord have only won three times in twelve games, losing five and drawing the other three.
Van Bronckhorst’s side seem to undergo a transformation when away games come around, as his side have picked up a clean sheet in 50% of their home games but have only managed one clean sheet in twelve away matches all season (8%). Also they rarely fail to score when playing at the de Kuip as there has only been one home game where they have failed to get on the scoresheet whereas away from home they have failed to score in three out of twelve matches.
The route cause of Feyenoord’s trouble away from home is that, on average, they concede more than they score. Feyenoord score on average 1.50 goals per game but they concede 1.67 goals per away game. This has led to them dropping twenty-three points through the draws and losses that they have picked up away from home.
Vitesse’s chances of winning the match against Feyenoord have been dealt a blow as they are missing key players from selection. Oussama Darfalou has been missing for Vitesse’s last two games due to an ankle injury. The Algerian forward has supplied five goals to the Vitesse cause this season and will be a big miss for the home side. Vitesse will be without Kruiswijk, Matavz and Musonda due to long term injuries.
Feyenoord have a mostly fresh squad for selection in this match. They will conduct late fitness tests on Yassine Ayoub who has missed Feyenoord’s last three matches due to a shoulder injury picked up against FC Groningen.
The bookies have made Feyenoord favourites to come away with a win against Vitesse, with the odds of an away win being are at ‘evens’. You can get odds of 23/10 for Vitesse to win the game. I would have to strongly disagree with the bookies for this one. Feyenoord have been terrible away from home. Also Slutsky’s Vitesse are strong enough at home to handle Feyenoord.
The double chance market offers cover when you go against the odds as you can still win the bet if the game ends in a draw. You can get a price of 4/6 for Vitesse to win or draw this match. Another market which offers the same kind of security around your bet is the draw no bet market. In this market, if your bet ends in a draw it becomes void on your bet slip. For Vitesse to win (draw no bet) you can get odds of 7/5.
Although I believe Vitesse will win the match, Feyenoord will still manage to get on the score sheet as they have shown they don’t often fail to score in away matches. Due to this I would consider the ‘both teams to score’ market for a bet. For both teams to score you can get odds of 4/7. To enhance the odds you can add a Vitesse win to the bet and get a price of 9/2.
Vitesse to win Draw no bet (7/5)
Both teams to score (4/7)