The battle for European qualification hots up in Holland as fifth play eighth in a huge fixture for both sides with Groningen leading by a singular goal from the first leg.
The hosts are looking to finish of an excellent season with a real flourish as they aim to claim a spot in European qualification for next season. A lot of the stats point towards a home win here and they’re the favourites heading in to this at a price of 1.62, with the visitors sitting at 4.5 to take the victory.
In their last fifteen home matches Vitesse haven’t tasted defeat once, which is an extremely impressive feat given that they’ve had to take on the leagues strongest sides in that period. Feyenoord, PSV and AZ Alkmaar have all failed to win at the GerleDome this season and I can see Groningen really struggling to get anything out of this. Vitesse have hit at least two goals in nine of their last 10 home fixtures and there has been over 2.5 goals in 19 of their last 21 games. There’s a few ways you could apply this to a betting selection; a Vitesse win and over 2.5 goals looks like fantastic value at a price of 2.5. There was over 2.5 goals in the first leg and Vitesse really need to go for this having been beaten away from home. Over 2.5 goals by itself is priced at 1.73 which is very high for an Eredivisie match, most likely due to Groningen being the side who sees the least goals on average in the league at just 2.45. Vitesse average 3.56 and if they score two which they consistently do at home then the visitors will have to come out and attack which could see there being fantastic value in that price.
The price for a Vitesse win looks solid too. Groningen have lost the last four trips to this stadium and haven’t won in their last six on the road. Their hope will be that they can stay solid and possibly hit Vitesse on the counter. Groningen have conceded 41 goals this season, which seems like a lot but that is actually only bettered by the top three sides in the division. However only the bottom two have found the net fewer times.
Little to report in terms of ins and outs for these two. Groningen will start with the same 11 that won the first leg of this tie. They’ll start with a 4-4-2 system but expect to see a regimented system where the midfield and defensive sit in traditional banks of four. One of their strikers may also come back to help the midfield in an attempt to stop the Vitesse’s deep playmakers from dictating the game.
Leonid Slutsky only has Hillary gong unavailable as the hosts look to reverse that disappointing first leg result. They play with a diamond in midfield, with Martin Odegaard allowed to drift as he sees fit. It’s been an extremely effective use of the young Norwegian who has got himself six goals this season. Vitesse’s main man is Bryan Linssen who has hit 14 in all competitions this campaign and is priced at 2.7 to score anytime. He’d be my pick for a goal scorer as I expect the hosts to spend a lot of time on the front foot.
With no defeats in 15 at home and such a superb scoring record in front of their own fans I just can’t see past Vitesse for this game. They’re at 1.62 to win the game which is a great price. If you want to up it then I suggest adding in either over 1.5 or 2.5 goals. 1.5 is the safer option as this would allow for Vitesse to go out and progress to the next round and not rely on Groningen necessarily scoring. That selection I available at 1.91.
Vitesse to qualify @ 1.85
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73
Bryan Linssen to score anytime @ 2.7