Brentford’s average away form points to Swansea edging this FA Cup tie between the two Championship sides.
Swansea v Brentford
Sunday 17th February, 16:00
The home side in this clash have been on a run of five matches unbeaten at home in all competitions. The Swans booked their spot in this Sunday’s clash with Brentford after a 4-1 victory over Gillingham. Swansea will be glad to be playing in front of their home fans once again after losing 2-1 at Elland Road last weekend against Leeds United. In the league this season, in sixteen home matches, Swansea have won seven games but lost five at the Liberty Stadium. Graham Potter seems to have sparked a turn around in Swansea’s home form recently as their last three home games in the league has supplied two of those seven wins at home.
A key element to Swansea’s success at home this season has come from the scoring of goals. Swansea have only failed to score in 19% of their home games this season. They have been able to average 1.50 goals per game over the sixteen home matches they have played. However, it has been their lack of clean sheets which has counted for twenty-three points being dropped at home this season. Swansea have picked up only six clean sheets in sixteen games, with them averaging 1.25 goals conceded per game at home this season.
Swansea have been able to spread their goals out throughout the entire 90 minutes of their home matches this season. With the Welsh side averaging 1.38 goals in each half in their home matches. However they have only been winning at half time in 25% of their home games this season.
Despite picking up a 1-0 home win against Aston Villa, Brentford have found it difficult to replicate their home form in games away from Griffin Park. In their last six away games, they have only had one win, they’ve drawn three and lost two. Compared to their last six home games, where they have won five and drew one. If the league was based around home results, Brentford would be pushing for promotion as well as a place in the next round of the FA Cup rather than sitting in 15th in the league.
Although goals haven’t been an issue for Thomas Frank’s side at home this season. Away from home they have dried up slightly as they average 1.20 goals per away game. Keeping goals out is a bigger concern this season away from Griffin Park. On average they concede at least a goal per game (1.67). This means they average more goals conceded than they have scored which has led them to dropping so many points this season.
The likely man to deal Swansea damage this season is the French striker Neal Maupay. The frontman has picked up eighteen goals in the league this season and has three goals in three games in the FA Cup. Maupay sealed Brentford’s last gasp victory over Aston Villa in their last game.
Although both teams go into this fresh from injury, each side has players who are in danger of being suspended for their next league matches. Ollie Watkins and Yoann Barbet for Brentford are both on four yellow cards, whereas Leroy Fer is on four for Swansea. If any of them pick up a fifth yellow card they will receive a one match suspension.
Going into the match on Sunday with Brentford, Swansea have been made slight favourites by the bookies. For a home win you can get odds of 8/5 whereas the away side have been given odds of 13/8 to win. I believe a home win is more likely given the home form of Swansea and the mixed form Brentford have shown away from home this season. To give security on your bet, I would go with a Swansea win or draw which gets odds of 2/5.
The other market I would consider for this game would be the both teams to score market. For both teams to score, the bookies would give you odds of 6/10. To add value to the bet, I would make the bet Swansea to win and both teams to score which would give you odds of 7/2. Utilising the goals market on this bet could prove successful and would negate the reliance on both teams to supply goals in order for the bet to be successful. For Swansea to win and over 2.5 goals to be scored you can get odds of 3/1. A less risky goals orientated bet would Swansea to win and over 1.5 goals which bookies give odds of 23/10.
Swansea to win or draw (2/5)
Swansea to win and over 1.5 goals (23/10)