Tottenham will be desperate to get back to winning ways as they have lost their last two league matches to Burnley and, London rivals, Chelsea. Arsenal on the other hand have won their last two matches and will be creeping up behind Spurs if they don’t get out of their bad form.
Tottenham v Arsenal
Saturday 2nd March, 12:30
Tottenham’s title hopes fading…
With Tottenham losing midweek against Chelsea and again last weekend away to Burnley, it is felt that Tottenham’s title hopes are fading as the North London side are now eight points adrift of Liverpool in second. Impressively this season Tottenham have not drawn a single game and only lost eight times in twenty-eight matches, but with the quality that Man City and Liverpool possess, there is little margin of error at the top of the league. The twenty-four points dropped through the eight losses could be far too many for a team with title aspirations to lose.
Tottenham have enjoyed playing away from home more than they have enjoyed playing at home this season as they have picked up eleven wins in fifteen away games and only nine wins in thirteen home games. However in recent weeks, losses have began to creep into Spurs’ away form having lost the last two and they have began to improve at home with no losses in their last three matches.
Spurs’ poor home form can be explained by the lack of clean sheets that they have picked up at Wembley this season. In thirteen matches, Spurs have only picked up only four clean sheets. Their defence seems to improve away from home as the have picked up a clean sheet in 40% of their away games compared to 36% at home. Pochettino may feel more comfortable playing more open at home as he would feel his side can pick up plenty goals in order to outscore their opponents at home. On average Tottenham score just under two goals per game (1.85). They have been able to reduce their opponents goals tally to just 0.92 goals per home game.
Arsenal to be tested…
Arsenal have performed well in recent weeks after picking up three wins in three. As a result, Arsenal have moved up to fourth in the league and are now looking to catch their North London rivals. However this good run can be explained by Arsenal playing two games at home and their only away game came against bottom of the table Huddersfield. Arsenal have been woeful away from home this season. Winning five and losing five in thirteen matches.
Arsenal’s defence has been vulnerable away from home as they are still yet to pick up a single clean sheet in an away match. As Arsenal’s attacking players are tasked with playing over-time they have been able to make sure they’ve scored every one of their away games apart from one. As a result of their defence’s failings and their prolific attack, over 90% of Arsenal’s matches have ended with both teams scoring, which means only one of their away matches has ended without both teams getting on the scoresheet.
In regards to the amount of goals being scored, Arsenal have conceded on average 2.00 goals per away game. This means Arsenal concede more goals than they score, away from home as they only score on average 1.92 goals per game.
Arsenal’s defence depleted by injuries…
Arsenal will have numerous defensive players injured for this match. They will miss Hector Bellerin, Stephan Lichtsteiner and Rob Holding. The Swiss right back will be a doubt after picking up a back injury in the 2-0 win over Southampton last weekend.
Tottenham will be without Eric Dier for this one through an illness which has ruled him out of Spurs’ last four matches.
Tottenham will scrape a win…
Due to Arsenal’s poor away form and Tottenham’s strong home form across the whole season, the home side have been made favourites to win this match with odds of evens. Arsenal have been given odds of 12/5 to come away with a win. I would agree with the bookies that Tottenham will get the win here despite the derby likely being a tight affair on Saturday.
Although Arsenal are very likely to concede on Saturday, I would not rule out them scoring goals in this game as well. You can get odds of 1/2 for both teams to score on in the North London Derby. To add more value to this type of bet, tie in the Spurs win and bookies will give you odds of around 5/2.
If you would rather not rely on both teams scoring in this match, you could go with over 2.5 goals to be scored in the match which would get odds of 6/10. By adding on a Tottenham win to the bet, you can get odds of 15/8.
Going by Spurs’ last five matches, there will likely be few yellow cards in this match as they have only picked up, on average, 1.6 bookings per game. At the same time Arsenal have only picked up 5.5 bookings in the last five matches. Despite this being a derby I believe there is value in the card market. You can get odds of 10/11 for under 50 booking points in the game. You can also go for there to be between 35 to 40 booking points in the match which would get you odds of 4/1.
Spurs to win (Evs)
Spurs to win and both teams to score (5/2)
Between 35 to 40 booking points (4/1)