Scottish Football Stats Pack: Rovers offer home value

Raith -1.00 Asian Handicap
@ 1.77 with Unibet
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Edinburgh City win
@ 1.95 with Bet365
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Raith Rovers v Stranraer: Raith -1.00 Asian Handicap (1.77 UniBet)

Raith are 2nd in League One and a big part of that is their home record. They’ve drawn with their two nearest challengers in East Fife and Falkirk and won the other 3 matches against the sides occupying 6th, 7th and 8th. These 3 victories were all by 2+ goals and their opponents this weekend look demonstrably worse.

Stranraer have conceded the most goals in the league (2.00PG), have the worst away record (0-2-4) and the graphics below make grim reading; no team is facing more shots or shots on target per game and only Forfar and Montrose are taking less shots.

East Fife opened at 1.57 at home to Stranraer a couple of weeks ago but were backed in to 1.40 by kick-off (both Bet365), so I don’t see the 1.53 on Raith (SkyBet) lasting long. I think this represents value in itself, but I’m willing to take a larger price on Raith winning more comfortably.

Edinburgh City v Elgin City: Edinburgh win (1.95 Bet365)

The opening line on City last weekend was priced up wrongly as they should never have been odds-against away to 2nd bottom of the table. And I think they’re being underestimated again here as they have a flawless 5-0-0 home record this season having played 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 10th. This may make them look like flat-track bullies, but I don’t think 4th place Elgin are significantly better than the clutch of teams just below them. These 2 sides shared the spoils in a 6-goal thriller at Borough Briggs in August, but the basis of Edinburgh’s strong home form has been the 3/5 clean sheets and limiting teams to just 7.00 shots and 2.80 on target per game.

As previously mentioned, Elgin are sitting in that final play-off spot, but the fixture computer has been fairly kind to them as this is their first away fixture against one of the breakaway top 3. Last season they were 0-2-6 away to the top 4, scoring a feeble 0.50 per game and conceding 2.25 per game. They did manage a 1-1 draw in the last meeting in the capital, but City had one eye on the play-offs

Edinburgh City have only gone off longer than 1.95 at home once this season (2.00 v Annan) and have closed at 1.70 or shorter in the other 4 matches, so I think this is worth taking early in the week.

(Historic odds and shot data courtesy of football-data.co.uk)


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