Scottish Football Stats Pack: Queens Park underrated again

Dumbarton +0.50 Asian Handicap
@ 2.02 with BetVictor
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Queens Park win
@ 1.88 with William Hill
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Dumbarton v Raith Rovers: Dumbarton +0.50 Asian Handicap (2.02 BetVictor)

It’s fair to say Dumbarton have had a mixed season. Having struggled to name a full bench in the League Cup and first couple of league games, they now sit comfortably midtable and it would take disastrous run of form to see them sucked into the relegation battle. Joe McKee has a league high 12 assists from midfield and Isaac Layne has been a handy forward, so they have the makings of play-off contenders next season if they can hold onto them. In the here and now they’re 4-3-5 at home this season which isn’t a spectacular record, but 3 of those defeats were in their first 4 games and in-form Montrose have beaten them in their last 5.

Raith won here on the opening day, but the Sons beat them 2-0 at Starks just before Christmas and Falkirk needed an injury time penalty to snatch a point on their visit to the Rock. Rovers do travel here in good form and they’re still top, a point ahead of Falkirk. But the betting markets continue to price them longer than the Bairns in comparative fixtures and they are susceptible to a slip-up on the road having failed to win 7 of a possible 13.

The best win price currently available is 1.85 and they’ve only gone off shorter in their trips to Forfar and Stranraer. I rate Dumbarton as a fair bit better than those two sides, so I’m happy to oppose Raith on the +0.50 Asian line. This is the same as Dumbarton/Draw Double Chance, but is a marginally better price.

Queens Park v Annan Athletic: Queens Park win (1.88 William Hill)

I’ve tipped Queens Park twice since their uptick in January and I think they’re being underestimated again. There was no shame in their defeat at Cove last weekend and, although they’ll be disappointed to only draw at basement side Brechin midweek, their record since the turn of the year is still 5-2-1. They’ve won 3/4 at home and have also scored 2+ in 3/4. Kouider-Aïssa and Galt are still their main source of attacking quality, but I expect Slater and MacLean to start producing as I feel they could be playing at a higher level.

Outside of Brechin, Annan are on the worst run of form in the league averaging just 0.75 points per game from their last 8 overall. They’ve lost their last 4 aways by an aggregate of 12-3 and lost 9/12 across the whole season. They have the 2nd highest goals against on their travels and overall, again behind Brechin in both, so I don’t see them keeping a clean sheet here.

Queens Park went off around 2.00 in their recent homes against and Cowdenbeath and Elgin and 1.65 versus Albion Rovers and Stenhousemuir. I rate Annan much closer to the latter 2, so I think the 1.88 on offer is more than fair and don’t see it lasting until Saturday.

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