Falkirk moved back to within a point of 1st with a comfortable win over East Fife midweek and stretched their unbeaten league run under Miller and McCracken to 10 games. They’ve won 4/5 at home in that period with an aggregate score of 15-1 and continue to be rated as the best team in the league by the betting markets. I’m a bit surprised they’re available at ~1.61 as they’ve only gone off longer in 2 home matches – East Fife and Raith – when those sides were above them in the league. When this fixture was played in August, Falkirk were 1.33.
Montrose have improved massively since the start of the season where they took 1 point from their opening 7 matches. Alongside Falkirk, they’re the form side in the league averaging 2.25 points per game in their last 8, but their 2 defeats in that period did come against Falkirk and Raith which takes them to 5/5 defeats against the top 2. My xPts model has them sneaking into the final play-off spot ahead of East Fife, but this is very much built on beating the teams around and below them.
Whilst Montrose should prove a stiffer test than Falkirk’s recent home matches, I don’t see 1.61 being available come kick-off. Falkirk have won by 2 or more in 7/12 homes and 4/5 under M&M, so I’m happy to take a more ambitious angle with the -0.75 Asian line.
Last weekend’s defeat at Cove was a sore one for Edinburgh as they were leading and that would have pulled them level on points at the top. They now find themselves 6 behind with 12 to play which is a big ask given Cove’s impeccable home form and their far superior goal difference. Nevertheless, I fancy them to get back on the horse this week with a routine win over doomed Brechin.
League Two’s bottom club suffered another demoralising loss at the hands of the only other side they have a realistic shot of catching and it’s only a matter of time before they throw the towel in. Gaining 10 points in their remaining 13 matches is a mammoth task given they’ve only amassed 15 to date and my xPts model suggests they’ll finish on 26 which 2 more than Albion Rovers are currently.
1.28 on Edinburgh just to win is fair enough given the respective quality of the two sides and adding in over 2.5 goals gets us up 1.80. The Citizens have won 9/12 home matches with 7 of those going over whilst Brechin have lost 9/12 away with 8 breaking that goal line.