Man Utd will need to overturn a 2-0 aggregate scoreline if they want to progress to the next round. PSG are still to lose at home in the Champions League.
PSG v Man Utd
Wednesday 6th March, 20:00
Parc des Princes
UEFA Champions League
Despite being without Neymar and Cavani, PSG have not had any issues finding the back of the net recently. PSG have scored sixteen goals in six matches with their French wonderkid, Kylian Mbappe, stepping up to the plate with seven goals in six games in all competitions. Man Utd will be up against it at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday as PSG have not lost in eight matches, with the last defeat for PSG coming in early February against Lyon.
If you thought PSG were impressive away from home against Man Utd, they have shown this season that they are even more capable at home. Thomas Tuchel’s side have turned the Parc des Princes into a fortress this season. The reigning Ligue 1 champions have only lost once and drew once in twenty home games.
Man Utd can expect to be under a lot of pressure right from kick off. As PSG, at home, have shown they like to score early on as they have been ahead at half time in 67% of their Champions League matches. This trend has continued when they play in the league as they are winning at half time in 71% of their matches.
In terms of the number of goals they score, PSG have averaged 3.57 goals per game at home in the league. PSG’s defence also work hard to keep goals out as they have only conceded on average 0.36 goals per game at home in the league this season. Many of PSG’s goals occur before half time at home. On average the Parisians score 1.36 goals before half time.
The shock of the 2-0 loss to PSG actually stands as testimony for how good of a job Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has done at Man Utd. Under the previous regime we would have expected a this kind of result. Solskjaer has given the Manchester side belief again and rekindled a ‘never say die’ attitude which hasn’t been present at Old Trafford since the Sir Alex Ferguson days.
Man Utd go into this match having only lost once in the sixteen matches Solskjaer has taken control of. That one loss coming against PSG. There have only been a few blips in Solskjaer’s tenure as Man Utd manager, as they drew with Burnley and Liverpool at home. Solskjaer’s squad have shown they can claw themselves back from the toughest of goal margins, as they rescued a point against Burnley after being 2-0 down in the game.
Away from home, Man Utd have won every away match Solskjaer has taken control of. Which is eight wins in eight away games. In this period Man Utd have shown that they have no problem getting on the scoresheet. In eight away matches, Man Utd have scored twenty goals which is an average of 2.50 goals per game. Impressively, Man Utd have only conceded three goals in those eight games which is only an average of 0.15 goals per game.
Following their 0-0 draw against Liverpool which was littered with injuries to both teams, Man Utd will be without many of their top players for the match against PSG. Ander Herrera, Jesse Lingard and Juan Mata picked up injuries against Liverpool in the 0-0 draw against and will be unlikely to feature for Man Utd against PSG. Nemanja Matic will still be ruled out by an injury picked up against Chelsea in the EFL cup.
Paul Pogba will also be unavailable for selection due to the red card he picked up in the first leg of this tie.
PSG will still be without Cavani and Neymar in their squad against Man Utd as they are both ruled out due to injury.
PSG are strong favourites to win this Champions League tie. PSG have odds of 2/5 to pick up the win whereas Man Utd have odds of 11/2 to win this match. The Parisians have odds of 1/250 to qualify from this round of the Champions League. For Man Utd to pull off a miracle comeback and progress in this tournament you can get odds of 20/1.
I would have to agree with the bookies, PSG are surely far to strong for a Man Utd side who have been fairly depleted due to injuries and suspensions. To add more value to a PSG win you should explore the asian handicap markets, half-time/full-time markets and the anytime wincast markets.
Firstly you can get odds of 11/10 for PSG to win with a handicap of -1. I would suggest going for PSG to win and -2 as PSG have shown they can dominate Man Utd in the last match and their home form shows they are particularly strong when playing at the Parc des Princes this season. For PSG to win with a handicap of -2 you can get odds of 11/4.
For PSG to win both halves, you can get odds of Evens. I would recommend this bet as PSG have shown this season that they are often winning by the half-time mark and rarely loosen their grip of games in the second half.
I would also recommend using the anytime wincast market. As Kylian Mbappe has shown he has what it takes to supply PSG with goals this season with the absence of Neymar and Cavani, I would feel he is likely to score in this match against Man Utd, like he did in the last leg. For Mbappe to score anytime and PSG to win bookies will give you odds of 10/11.
Mbappe to score anytime and PSG to win (10/11)
PSG to win both halves (Evens)
PSG to win – 2 (11/4)