After all the matches over the festive period, I wanted to see if there was any fresh value in the Premier League and I think I’ve found a cracking bet – Newcastle United lowest scorers at 5/1.
They’ve scored 20 goals in 21 games so far, the 3rd worst in the league. Watford are currently bottom with 17, followed by Crystal Palace with 19. Let’s delve into Newcastle’s stats:
· 20th for expected goals – 17.82
· 18th for shots – 10.0 per game (only 0.1 more than both 19th and 20th) with just 3.40pg on target (only 0.2 more than anyone else)
Where do these shots come from?
· 20th for 6 yard-box – 0.4pg
· 19th for penalty area – 5.4pg (only 0.1 more than 20th Burnley)
Which unsurprisingly means they’re riding high up in 13th for shots outside the box i.e. the worst area.
Their top goalscorer is Jonjo Shelvey with 5 goals then comes five players on just two goals and four of those are defenders! Club record signing striker Joelinton has only one goal in 21 games – five months ago. Watford have scored three fewer than Newcastle but expected goals says they deserve nine more (26) and they’ve already scored 8 in 6 games under new boss Nigel Pearson after only 9 in their first 15 games so I’m expecting an improvement. Palace have 19 and xG says 19.70 so maybe they are worth a small saver at 4/1. Expected goals wise Norwich are next at 22.46 but I’m not really looking anywhere else given Newcastle rank almost bottom in nearly all the key shooting metrics. 5/1 looks a great price.
Mikel Arteta been in charge for three Premier League games (W1 D1 L1) and one FA Cup match. I wrote about Arsenal to finish in the bottom half at 5/1 before Christmas and they’re now as short as 7/2. I don’t want to read too much into just four matches but it’s concerning they’ve lost the expected goals count in two of their three PL games and failed to win the shot count in any of the four. Against Leeds it read 3 – 15 at half-time. They surely will be punished if they continue to start games slowly/allow the opposition barrages of shots. So far this season Arsenal have conceded the 4th most shots which is not conducive to a top half finish.
David Moyes has come in at West Ham and won his only Premier League game in charge 4-0 v Bournemouth. It was fully deserved winning the shot count 14 – 3 and thus the expected goals 2.10 – 0.72. He only made four changes from their home defeat which saw Manual Pellegrini sacked and kept a similar formation so fans should be disappointed if it’s just a motivational thing the players required. Other people who may also be disappointed in the opposite way are those who are on the 16/1 I mentioned about the Hammers to be relegated a few months ago, now best priced 9/2. Last time Moyes was in charge he took over them in the relegation zone of November 2017 and led them to a 13th place finish and with a game in hand, it may be wise to trade out.