Two European giants collide in a mouth watering clash at Anfield, as Liverpool take on Bayern Munich
Liverpool v Bayern Munich
Tuesday 19th February, 20:00
Jurgen Klopp’s men will be happy to see their first match of the Champions League knockout rounds draw them at Anfield. Liverpool are yet to be beaten at home in the Champions League this season and have shown they are capable dealing with Europe’s elite teams when they make a trip to Merseyside, with them beating PSG 3-2 and Napoli 1-0 in this season’s campaign. Liverpool have been able to build on this momentum gained in the Champions League with an unbeaten home run in the league, where they have picked up eleven wins and two draws in the thirteen home matches that they have played.
During this impressive home run, Liverpool have averaged 2.69 goals per game and only conceded 0.54 goals per game. This has led them to pick up eight clean sheets in thirteen home games in the league. Liverpool have only failed to score once in the league in thirteen home games. Liverpool have been able to maintain this goal scoring form in the Champions League as they have averaged 2.67 goals per game in the three home games in the Champions League. Liverpool showed they can score goals at home against the competitions top clubs with them scoring four in two home games against PSG and Napoli.
Liverpool have shown they like to strike quickly in games giving them a foothold in the match from which to build from. In 54% of Liverpool’s matches, the Merseyside club have been winning at half time. They have averaged 1.31 goals by half time in home matches, reducing the away side to just 0.31 goals by the end of the first half.
Going by Bayern’s away stats in the league and the Champions League, the away side will have no qualms coming to Anfield seeking a winner. Away from home in the league, Bayern have won nine and lost three of their twelve away games in the Bundesliga. Also in the Champions League they are unbeaten home and away, picking up two wins at home and away in their six Champions League Group games.
Bayern Munich have shown themselves to be able to simply outscore their opposition when playing at home and away this season. On average Bayern score 2.33 goals per away game which is something they continue into their home games as they average 2.20 goals when playing at the Allianz Arena. However their defence has been leaky this season in the league. On average, Bayern Munich concede at least a goal in their away games (1.17).
Like Liverpool, Bayern Munich like to start games on the front foot in away matches. The German side have been winning in 75% of their matches at half time. They have averaged at least 1.17 goals in the first half of their games.
Defensive injuries picked up by the home side could prove decisive in this one. Liverpool will have the face the Deutscher Meisters without Joe Gomez due to a broken leg and Dejen Lovren due to a thigh injury. To make matters worse for Jurgen Klopp, Virgil Van Dijk is suspended due to picking up too many yellow cards in the group stages.
Bayern Munich have similar issues, the defender, Jerome Boateng has been ruled out of the clash with Liverpool due to injury. Attacking pair Franck Ribery and Thomas Muller will also miss out, with the former picking up an injury and the latter picking up a red card in his last Champions League group game.
Bookies have labelled Liverpool favourites to run out winners at Anfield as they have odds of 11/10 whereas Bayern have odds of 23/10 to win. I would have to disagree with the bookies in this one. Bayern’s impressive away form in the Champions League and the league would indicate that they would be able to cope with the occasion, as well as this they go into this game showcasing some serious quality throughout their squad. As well as this, Liverpool’s injury list will hamper the home side defensively. I do believe however Liverpool will score so I would recommend a Bayern win and both teams to score for this game which is priced at 4/1.
I also believe that it will be a high scoring game, with Liverpool and Bayern showing in previous matches they can get on the score sheet at home and away respectively. As a result I would also recommend an over 2.5 goals bet which can get odds of 4/7.
Tying this in with a Bayern win, bookies are willing to offer odds of 7/2 for the away side to win and over 2.5 goals to be scored in the game. This would provide less risk as you wouldn’t necessarily need to wait on goals to be scored from both sides like in the previous bet.
Finally, the other market I would consider is the draw no bet market. This type of bet will give you insurance incase the game ends with a scoring draw. With both teams showing they can score this is worthwhile as a scoring draw is a plausible outcome. You can get odds of 7/5 for a Bayern Munich to win draw no bet selection.
Bayern Munich to win draw no bet (7/5)
Bayern Munich to win and over 2.5 goals (7/2)