Roma and AC Milan kept up the intensity in the race for the top four in Serie A over the weekend; It’s now over to Inter, who would move in to third with a win here over relegated Chievo.
Roma toppled champions Juventus last night to move to within a point of Inter, neighbouring rivals AC Milan ground out a 1-0 win over Fiorentina on Saturday to also move to within a point. Inter’s form has been somewhat indifferent of late; they have been exceptionally hard to beat, mainly on the account of their very tight defence. The hosts have suffered just one defeat in their last eight league matches and have conceded just six times, however four draws has slowed their progress down slightly. They realistically should already have a top four place sewn up. Inter have won 10 of the last 12 meeting between these two sides and will fancy making that 11 from 13 against a Chievo side who’ve won just twice in their last 35 matches in the league. It’s these stats which see Inter priced at just 1.13 to win the game with the visitors all the way out at 18.0.
Many will be touting this as an Inter Milan drubbing; win and over 2.5 goals is at 1.44. But I’d be staying clear of backing Inter to be free scoring. Nine of their last 10 home games have seen under 2.5 goals and regardless of how poor Chievo have been this season, Inter’s shortfalls in front of goal have been there for all to see. Under 2.5 goals is at 2.88 which looks like an excellent price. For me the value is in an Inter win to nil at 1.73. No side has kept more clean sheets than the hosts this season, with 46% of their games featuring a clean sheet and only Juventus have won more games to nil. Factor in that only Frosinone have failed to score in more games this campaign than Chievo and that price of 1.73 looks very solid.
Stefan De Vrij has picked up a muscle injury and will be unavailable for this game. His partnership with Milan Skriniar has been a key in the host’s strength at the back. Miranda will step in in his place and the Brazilian is more than capable of filling his boots. Kwadwo Asamoah and Cedric Soares will plat at full back with Sime Vrsalijko injured and Danilo D’Ambrosio suspended. Marcelo Brozovic is also suspended which means Borja Valero will start in midfield, the decision is whether he’ll play a deeper role with Naingolan playing as a number 10 or if it’ll be the other way around.
Since their relegation Chievo have been experimenting with their youth prospects. They’ve given first team appearances to numerous players in the past few games. Emanuel Vignato is the clubs brightest prospect and he looks likely to start in behind the front two as the visitors shift in to a 3-4-1-2 formation.
This is a must win for Inter and they’ll be showing no mercy against an already relegated side who are likely to field some inexperienced players. A win here lifts the hosts in to third place above Atalanta and it would make it very difficult for AC or Roma to overtake them from that point.
I think Inter will be comfortable in this game but won’t blow Chievo away. Inter are structured and rigid, a system which the relegated side who’ve scored just 25 goals this campaign will struggle to break through. I think Inter to win to nil is the best bet at 1.73. A correct score of 2-0 at 5.5 could also be a selection with great value.
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88
Inter to win to nil @ 1.73
Mauro Icardi to score first @ 2.75