It’s a must win for Dortmund on Saturday as they face Dusseldorf. The reality is however that come full time the title may already be gone, even if they take all three points here.
It’s a huge game for Dortmund. Anything other than a win here would mean their feint title hopes are completely gone. They can take some solace from the fact that Bayern have to travel to Leipzig to face a Red Bull side who haven’t lost in over two months and will want to make a statement against Bayern. For a side in the title race; Dortmund’s form has been patchy to say the least. They’ve won only three of their last six and have given away numerous precious points from winning positions, particularly in their last two against Schalke and Werder Bremen. The latter will be one that really hurts, The Yellows led 2-0 up until 70 minutes, where in just five quick minutes they conceded twice to hand Bayern a huge advantage. Dortmund are still the heavy favourites to win this match at a price of 1.25.
Dusseldorf come here as huge outsiders at 8.5 for a win, they also have very little to play for after a distinctly average season. However they’ll relish their chance to play a big part in who takes The Bundesliga crown this season. The visitors come in to this with identical form over their last six games to the hosts: three wins, one draw and two losses. They’ve also scored the same amount (12) and conceded one less (11). This level of goal involvement is a great indicator to back over 2.5 goals, but with the price at 1.22 I’d be looking towards both teams to score at 1.5. Both teams scored in the previous two meetings between the sides this season.
The most notable absentee from this fixture is Marco Reus who is still side lined due to suspension, he’ll be a huge miss as he bring so much to the side. Not just goals but his all round quality and link up play really ties this Dortmund side together. Paco Alcacer will lead the line, he’s been deadly in front of goal despite not having a huge amount of minutes on the pitch, he’d be my pick for a goal. You can back the Spaniard at 3.6 to score first, which looks to be good value.
Achraaf Hakimi is out injured as well as Dan Axel Zagadou, meaning a slight shuffle at the back. Manuel Akanji will start at centre half with Lukasz Piszczek staring at right back.
Dusseldorf do have some injury concerns; they could have as many as five first team players unavailable. They’ll be adopting a 4-4-2 formation which will see their front two tasked with holding the ball up and bringing the wingers in to play, particularly in the hope of getting a counter attack when Dortmund are on top.
I think the best markets to delve in to for this one revolve around goals. Both teams to score would be my first pick, both teams have found the net in 69% of Dortmund’s games and in 59% of Dusseldorf’s. If you want to up the ante a bit, both teams to score and the match to end as a draw is priced at 7.0 and that looks like superb odds. I can see Dortmund having some real trouble in this game and given their inconsistency and inability to hold a lead I’d air on the side of caution if you’re thinking about backing them. If you want a big odds choice, you could back Dortmund to be leading at half time but the match to finish as a draw at a big price of 15.0.
Both teams to score @ 1.5
Draw @ 6.0
Paco Alcacer to score first @ 3.6