Chelsea players will be looking to restore a degree of pride back into their squad after the humiliating events of the Carabao Cup Final last weekend. Tottenham will want to bounce back from their shock defeat to Burnley.
Chelsea v Spurs
Wednesday 27th February, 20:00
English Premier League
It’s safe to say Chelsea didn’t have the best of times in their last match against Man City in the EFL Cup Final. Despite keeping City out for the full ninety minutes and extra time, controversy was added to the proceedings after Chelsea keeper, Kepa, refused to be substituted and played on going against his manager’s orders. The incident tarnished the London side’s efforts in the final and added another layer of negativity around Sarri’s tenure as head coach.
Chelsea will be glad their London derby is taking place at home as the side have a better win ratio at home (62%) than they do when they play away (54%). Also Chelsea’s goal management is far better at home than it is away, Chelsea have only failed to score in 23% of their home games compared to the 31% of away games that they have failed to score in. As well as this they have picked up one more clean sheet at home (six in thirteen) than they have when playing away from Stamford Bridge (five in thirteen).
Despite the troubles Chelsea have suffered recently, they can claim that Stamford Bridge is still a fortress in the league. They’ve only picked up one loss in thirteen home matches. Their average goals scored per home game is still impressive as it stands at 2.00 goals per game, their defence has been more effective at home as well, they have reduced sides to scoring just 0.69 goals per game.
Tottenham fans will have been breathing a heavy sigh of relief after seeing Liverpool drop points against Man Utd at Old Trafford, after Pochettino’s men lost to Burnley 2-1. As a result of the Liverpool draw, Tottenham haven’t been totally left behind by second placed Liverpool in the league. It was a lackadaisical performance to say the least as Tottenham went behind twice in the match before succumbing to defeat. Pochettino was fined for berating referee, Mike Dean, for hand in his side’s defeat. The Argentine manager later apologised to Dean for his outburst.
Despite their 2-1 loss at Turf Moor at the weekend, Spurs have enjoyed playing away from home this season after picking up eleven wins in fourteen away matches, losing the other three. In recent times however, this hasn’t been the case as Spurs have lost each of their last three away matches in all competitions. Also as a rule, Spurs don’t enjoy visits to Stamford Bridge as they have only won on one occasion in the last five matches that they have face Chelsea away from home.
Although there was not much for Spurs fans to cheer about at the weekend, they will be happy that Harry Kane marked his return to action from injury with a goal. Kane will be critical to Spurs’ chances against Chelsea as the striker has played eleven goals against the Blues and picked up six goals and two assists. Scoring goals has not been an issue for Tottenham away from home as they have averaged 2.21 goals per game. It has been conceding goals which has hindered Spurs as they have conceded on average 1.07 goals per game away from home.
Chelsea go into this match relatively fresh despite having a few players ruled out by injury. Gary Cahill, Danny Drinkwater and Marco Van Ginkel have been ruled out to long term injuries but have been unavailable for Sarri for quite some time so the Chelsea boss will be used to their absences. Davide Zappacosta will be a doubt for the game after recovering from illness.
Spurs have had Eric Dier ruled out through illness. The Englishman has missed the last three matches for Spurs through this illness. Chelsea fans will be glad to hear that Dele Alli is a doubt for the match as he is still recovering from a thigh injury which has ruled him out for seven matches. The attacking midfielder has made seven appearances against Chelsea in his career and scored six times and picked up two assists.
Chelsea have been made 6/5 favourites to pick up a win against London rivals Tottenham who are priced at 9/4 to get a win. I would side with the bookies in this one, despite Chelsea’s shortcomings in the cup final on Sunday, they still showed themselves able to contend with Man City for ninety minutes, plus they’re home record shows them to be a better side playing at home.
I would also look at the both teams to score market as Chelsea v Spurs matches rarely end without both teams scoring, only once in the last five meetings have both teams not scored by the end of the game. Also over half of Spurs’ away games have ended this way which is due to their impressive scoring form and woeful clean sheet record when playing away from home. You can get odds of 6/10 for this to happen. To add more value to the bet you can get Chelsea and both teams to score for odds of 3/1.
Another market you should explore is the anytime goalscorer market. Due to Harry Kane’s scoring record against Chelsea, I would back the England striker to pick up a goal in this match. For Kane to score anytime you can get odds of 13/10.
Chelsea to win and both teams to score (3/1)
Harry Kane to score anytime (13/10)