Burnley will want to create distance between them and the relegation zone. Tottenham’s title aspirations can be vindicated or quashed in this match, as they are five points adrift of Liverpool in second.
Burnley v Spurs
Saturday 23rd February, 12:30
English Premier League
Burnley’s home form has seen them lose only once in the last six matches played at Turf Moor. Sean Dyche will be keen to translate his side’s decent home performances into a safer position in the league, as the Lancashire side is only three points clear of the relegation places, despite sitting in 15th in the table.
Although Burnley’s season has been poor generally in terms of the amount of wins to losses they have had, Burnley have fared far better playing in front of their home supporters. In the league this season, Burnley have won four and lost six of their twelve home league matches. Whereas away from home they have won just three and lost seven in fourteen away matches.
A factor which separates Burnley from the teams in the relegation is that they are prolific when it comes to scoring goals, especially at Turf Moor. Burnley have only failed to score in two out of twelve home matches. It has been the rate of goals being conceded which has dragged them into the relegation mire this season. On average Burnley concede 1.81 goals per game in both home and away matches. This increases to 1.83 goals per game when they play at home.
Spurs fans have certainly enjoyed their side’s performances recently with the side recording four straight wins in the league. They are currently sitting in third, slightly adrift of Liverpool and Man City in second and first respectively, by five points. Tottenham also come off the back of a dominant win over the German side Borussia Dortmund.
However the North London side have enjoyed playing four consecutive home games, so this away match will truly test their mettle when it comes to their title aspirations this season. Arguably, Tottenham have been in better form away from home than at home this season. After playing thirteen away matches, Tottenham have only lost twice when on their travels, whereas at home they have lost four times. They have currently only one loss in eleven games. Going by away results alone, Tottenham would be top of the league as they have picked up more points away from home than any other team in the league, with a win ratio of 85%.
The away side seem to be able to score more when they play away from Wembley this season. So far in their thirteen away matches, Tottenham have scored thirty goals, which is an average of 2.31 goals per game. When Spurs play away from home, they seem to become more open, going by the average rate in which they concede goals. At home Tottenham concede less than a goal per game (0.91) whereas when they play away this increases to 1.00 goals per game. Although, it is in away matches that Tottenham have picked up more clean sheets this season, having picked up six in thirteen away matches and only four in thirteen home games.
Burnley will be missing players due to long term injuries. Aaron Lennon and Jonathan Walters will miss the match with knee and calf injuries respectively. Burnley have missed these two players for most of the season due to their injuries. Steven Defour may come back after missing the last three matches due to a calf injury. Ashley Westwood will have to be careful in this match. The midfielder is currently on four yellow cards this season, picking up a fifth will land him with a one match ban.
Despite Harry Kane nearing a recovery from his ankle injury, he will possibly still sit out for this match on Saturday. Pochettino will also be without Ben Davies and Dele Alli. With Ben Davies sustaining an injury, the replacement left back, Danny Rose, is walking a tightrope as he runs the risk of picking up a one match suspension if he picks up another yellow card.
Having ran an impressive gauntlet of difficult matches without having key players available, I would fancy a Tottenham win in the game on Saturday. The bookies seem to agree with me as they have made Spurs 4/6 favourites to get the win over Burnley who get odds of 4/1 to get the win.
With Son Heung Min enjoying his time back at Spurs after his international duty ended, I fancy the Korean to get on the scoresheet in this one as he has scored in each of his last four matches. For Son to score anytime, you can get odds of 10/11.
With Burnley rarely failing to score at home, I feel that there is value in the both teams to score market in this one. For both teams to score the bookies are offering odds of 8/11. To add more value you should try the match result and both teams to score market, where you can get odds of 21/10 for Tottenham to win and both teams to score.
Spurs to win and both teams to score (21/10)
Son Heung-Min to score anytime (10/11)