If Aston Villa have any Play-Off aspirations they will need to stop dropping points so regularly, they come up against a Brentford side who were on a ten match unbeaten run which ended at the weekend against Nottingham Forest.
Brentford v Aston Villa
Wednesday 13th February, 19:45
Thomas Frank needs to put this weekend’s defeat to Nottingham Forest behind him. Before the 2-1 loss, Brentford was on a ten game unbeaten run picking up six wins and drawing four times. Before the Forest game, the Bees had the chance to move further away from relegation, as the London side reside in 18th position, eleven points away from relegation-threatened side Reading, a win could have seen them move up to 14th. That prospect is still on the table going into this one although it is also effected by what happens in the other games playing in the same night. At Griffin Park, Brentford perform far better than how they perform when they are playing away. The home side have picked up eight wins in fifteen matches and are sitting in the Play-Off positions, with league positions based on just home games that have been played.
Goals have been flowing when playing at Griffin Park which contributes massively to the success Brentford have been having when playing at home. On average the home side have scored two goals per game when playing in front of home fans (2.07). Also, Brentford have only failed to score in 7% of their home matches this season, which works out to be just the one game which was against Bristol City in October. A stat which proves to be a negative aspect of Brentford’s play is their lack of clean sheets this season. Home and away, Brentford have picked up a clean sheet in only 17% of their games, their ability to score goals and this statistic has led to both teams to score in 70% of Brentford’s matches.
The main supplier of goals this season for the London-club has been the Frenchman Neal Maupay. The striker has produced seventeen goals in the league, nine of which have came while playing at home. Neal Maupay was the difference between Brentford losing all three points in the reverse fixture against Aston Villa, the Frenchman scored twice in the 2-2 draw back in August.
Dean Smith could have done with avoiding dropping points to Sheffield United at the weekend. Despite fighting back from 3-0 down, the draw means they have dropped nine points in five games in the Championship. At this stage, to mount any push for the Play-Offs, Aston Villa need to start winning games again. Before the Sheffield United game, Villa drew to, relegation candidates, Reading 0-0 a game which Aston Villa, given the quality, in their side would be expected to win.
Away form has been a hindrance for Aston Villa this season. The Villans have only won four times whilst on the road, losing five and sharing the points six times in the Championship this season. Their form in the last six doesn’t paint the Midlands side in any good light either. In the last ten games, the away side have lost three and drew five and won only two in both home and away in all competitions. Both Teams have scored in 71% of Villa’s home games this season. Although Villa have only failed to score three times in the this season.
Goals have not been hard to come across for Villa fans this season. Their goals tally of fifty-six is the second highest in the division, the away side have averaged just under two goals per game (1.83). However away from home they their goal average plummets to just over a goal per game (1.27). Aston Villa also have conceded at least a goal per away game at 1.27. This has led to Aston Villa dropping twenty-seven points through wins and draws in the league this season.
While the home side have no new injury concerns. Ollie Watkins and Yoann Barbet run the risk of picking up suspensions in this game through accumulating too many yellow cards. The away side will still be without the midfielder Jack Grealish for this clash with Brentford. The Englishman has been injured since the match with Midlands rivals West Brom in the middle of December. Villa will also be without Nyland, Lansbury and Tuanzebe who have been injured long term.
Despite the gap between Brentford and Villa in the league, the bookies have priced the home side at Evens to win, and favourites to come away with a win. Villa are 12/5 to win the match. This is likely due to the form Brentford have been in of late, excluding the Forest game, and the reduction in quality that Aston Villa experience when they play away. I would agree that Brentford will edge this game but, since Villa are liable to draw away games, I would recommend a Brentford to win (draw no bet) bet which is priced at 1/2.
Since Aston Villa have only failed to score on three occasions in fifteen away matches, and that the home side have shown they can get goals when playing at Griffin Park, it is worth adding value to the Brentford to win bet using bets from the goal markets and both teams to score market. For both teams to score, the bookies give you a price of 1/2. Coupled with a Brentford win you can get odds of 5/2. In terms of goals, over 2.5 goals to be scored in the game is priced at 6/10. For there to be three goals in the game and a Brentford win it is 15/8.
Brentford to win (draw no bet) (1/2)
Both teams to score (1/2)
Over 2.5 Goals (6/10)