Sunday see’s a huge game in The Championship. This Second City derby is about more than just bragging rights, it’s about making a push for The Premier League, but what can we expect?
Birmingham sit four points outside the play-offs with their neighbours another two points behind them. It’s crunch time in The Championship and this already fierce rivalry is carrying extra weight, as one side could deal the other a huge blow, and in Villa’s case they could move above Birmingham with a win.
By the time this game roles around on Sunday the table could look slightly different and these sides may in fact be further outside the play-off places which will only enhance the pressure. But the fixtures above them may see a real opportunity for either of these two to climb higher. Bristol City currently occupy the last play off place, they have a huge home game against Leeds. 9th placed Nottingham Forest host 10th placed Hull City, with Derby in 8th facing a tough test against in form Sheffield Wednesday. If a winner can emerge from Sunday’s derby it could be a win they look back on come the end of the season.
Besides Norwich, no side in The Championship has seen more goals on average per game than Aston Villa. Their matches this season have had an average of 3.26 goals in each, with 86% of their games seeing over 1.5 goals and a league high bar Norwich again, of 60% of them seeing over 2.5 we’ve got to hope for a thrilling game at St Andrews.
In terms of how Birmingham fit in, they’ve been highly involved in goals this season too. Their average of 2.8 is still one of the higher in the league. 74% of their games have seen over 1.5 goals, and 54% of them have involved over 2.5.
You can back over 1.5 goals at a price of 1.25 which statistically looks like a strong selection, over 2.5 is at 1.91 which could represent some real value if these two go at each other.
Both teams to score is another market that could be a great choice at a price of 1.65, both teams have scored in 66% of Villa’s games and 57% of Birmingham’s, two sides colliding with those kind of averages should make for an open affair with plenty of goals. If you fancy a bit of an outside bet at higher odds, you can back a score draw at 4.2.
The Blue’s form isn’t exactly anything to shout about, a patchy run has seen them win three and draw one of their last six, which included a very disappointing home defeat to Bolton and a 2-0 defeat last time out against Hull. A fantastic away win at Bristol City as well as a thrilling 4-3 triumph at QPR are the highlights of late, but this is the one they’ll be desperate to win.
Villa are in a bit of a slump, just one win in six, which did come in fantastic style in their last game as they drubbed Derby 4-0 at Villa Park. Three of their last six have been draws, with many of their games petering out as Villa have struggled to find an extra gear when required, a problem they have faced all season.
In terms of form this match see’s a meeting of two of the leagues hottest strikers, with 21 goals apiece, Tammy Abraham and Che Adams are the two favourites for a goal in this game, Adams edges out Abraham as the favourite at 2.4 anytime and 2.5 first. It’s been a couple of weeks since Adams found the net, where as Abraham was on target in Villa’s last match. However I would side with Adam’s to be on the scoresheet if you want to back a goal scorer. Of Abraham’s 21 goals, only 4 have come away from home with Villa only netting 20 in total on the road, compared to 41 at home.
Both teams to score and draw @ 4.2
Che Adams to score anytime @ 2.4
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.91