There’s absolutely no denying that Livingston have had a fantastic 2019/20 season, almost regardless of what happens in the remaining 12 games of the campaign. Their home record is only bettered by the Old Firm to date and they’re the only side other than Rangers to beat Celtic this season.
But despite their dominance at the Tony Macaroni Arena, Livi still have only a five-point buffer in the top 6; with the chasing pack of Hibs, Killie and St Johnstone all building up a head of steam in recent weeks. And I think now might be the perfect time to bet on Livingston to fall away and finish the season in the bottom 6, at odds of 4/1.
As good as they’ve been at home (whether that be due to their plastic pitch or otherwise – that’s a discussion for another day), they’ve been equally poor on their travels. 14 goals have been conceded in their last six, and they’ve shipped an average of 2.15 goals per away game this season – picking up just 10 points and only managing wins against Ross County and Hamilton in 13 matches.
Of their next four fixtures, three of them are away from home – against Rangers, Hibs and St Johnstone. Sandwiched in the middle of that is a home match against Celtic. To be honest I’d be surprised if Gary Holt’s men come out of that quartet of fixtures with more than 2-3 points. In fact it’s not inconceivable that they could lose all four.
The final three games before the split do look a little more inviting – Hearts (h), Aberdeen (h) and Kilmarnock (a) – but each of them still look potentially problematic and by the time the Jambos come to visit in mid-March we might well see Livi already in the bottom 6.
This is by no means a banker, and I certainly don’t mean to belittle what Livi have done this season to date, but when you break down their success so far an analyse what’s to come over the next month then that 4/1 about a bottom-half finish looks particularly appealing right about now.