Aberdeen will be looking to bounce back from their 4-2 defeat to Rangers, by progressing in the Scottish Cup in their home tie with Queen of the South.
Aberdeen v Queen of the South
Sunday 10th February, 15:30
Derek McInnes will want to quickly move on from the recent defeat to Rangers as the Dons boss has seen his side put in a run of solid performances in the weeks leading up to this setback. Before the match with Rangers, Aberdeen were unbeaten in six matches in all competitions. Picking up four wins and drawing two. Within this period prior to the Rangers game, the Dons scored ten in six games, averaging 1.67 goals per game, they conceded only four in the same period.
Just looking at Aberdeen’s home form however, paints a different picture. In the last five home matches, Aberdeen have won only once, drew twice and lost twice. The main factor causing Aberdeen to drop points is their goal ratios. Aberdeen concede one goal per game (1.31) and score only one goal per game (1.92) Both teams have scored in four out of six home games. Although Aberdeen have only failed to score once in six games in a 0-0 draw with Kilmarnock.
The main producer of goals this season for Aberdeen has been the English striker, Sam Cosgrove. The striker has scored fourteen goals in twenty-four appearances for Aberdeen this season. He currently sits in 2nd behind Alfredo Morelos in the goal-scoring charts in the league this season. Cosgrove has scored five in six games and picked up a brace against Rangers on Wednesday.
Queen of the South have been in fairly average form of late. They have won two, lost two and drawn one in their last five games. Their most spectacular performance recently has been in the last round of the Scottish Cup. Queen of the South ran out 3-0 winners at Dens Park.
In the last round, leading scorer, Stephen Dobbie bagged himself a hat-trick and completely blew away the top tier opposition. The striker has scored seven in his last six games and was on a run of scoring in five straight games before his side’s 3-0 defeat to Falkirk at the weekend. An issue for Queen of the South would be how the goals are spread out amongst the squad. Dobbie has 18 goals in the league but the next player in the scoring charts is Josh Todd with five. This suggests that there is a reliance on Dobbie and that if he doesn’t score there is not really any other source of goals for the Doonhamers.
Despite showing they are capable of pulling off an upset against teams from higher leagues, Queen of the South have struggled on the road this season, with them picking up five losses and only three wins when on their travels. As well as this whilst playing away from Palmerston Park, Queen of the South have kept a clean sheet in only 25% of their away matches, they have also conceded at least a goal per away game. A saving grace for Gary Naysmith’s men is the fact that they have been able to average at least a goal per game which has allowed them to pick up four points through four draws. This stat has led to 50% of Queen of the South’s games ending with both teams having scored in the game.
Aberdeen will be without their young centre-back, Scott McKenna, for their game against Queen of the South. The defender picked up a red card for violent conduct after an altercation with Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos.
Queen of the South have had their side depleted through injury as their manager, Gary Naysmith has admitted that his will struggle to fill all eighteen positions permitted in the Scottish Cup clash. He added that for many of his players ‘there won’t be a decision made until Saturday’ on whether they will feature or not. The defensive midfielder, Iain Wilson, brought in on loan from Kilmarnock will miss this game as he played for Kilmarnock in the last round and is cup-tied for this one.
Aberdeen are priced as 1/4 favourites for their clash with Queen of the South in the Scottish Cup. The bookies see the Doonhamers as massive outsiders for this one as they have been priced at 14/1. Although Aberdeen’s home form leaves a lot to be desired, Queen of the South’s form shows that inconsistency hampered the Championship side. Arguably their 3-0 win against Dundee was won through Dundee, reverting all focus to their survival in the league.
An avenue which could add value to an Aberdeen win is the both teams to score market. With the home side’s fallibility to conceding at least a goal per game at home, and with the scoring form of Queen of the South striker Stephen Dobbie, it is feasible for the game to have goals scored by both teams. The bookies price Aberdeen to win and both teams to score at 21/10.
Goal markets can also be a good source of value in this one as the bookies offer 4/6 odds for the game to end with over 2.5 goals being scored. Combining this with the Aberdeen win, you can get odds of 4/5.
Due to the deadly form that both Cosgrove and Dobbie are in at the moment, the goalscorer market may show some value on Sunday. Cosgrove is priced at 8/11 to score anytime and Dobbie is priced at 23/10 to score anytime.
Aberdeen to win and both teams to score (21/10)
Over 2.5 Goals (4/6)
Sam Cosgrove to score anytime (8/11)