The tide begins to turn towards jumps cards. Across the UK and Ireland there’s a perfect split of 3 flat cards and 3 jumps cards apiece. The quality might not be the highest but there’s a few decent short priced favourites creeping around who are going to be worth backing.
Today we saw Longhouse Sales’ form take another major boosting with Scardura making a mockery of a mark of 127. When we last saw Skelton charge Longhouse Sale he held off THE BUTCHER SAID in a battle to the line. Both were carrying penalties for chase successes but managed to pull well clear of the remainder of the field. Harry Skelton’s mount just managing to give away the 6lbs to The Butcher Said who was slightly outpaced over 2.5 miles.
Olly Murphy’s 7 year old got off the mark immediately as a chaser having won on debut over fences over 3 miles at Southwell. A commanding performance on seasonal reappearance saw him bolt up by an easy 12 lengths against 2 rivals. An official rating of 139 probably underestimates The Butcher Said and still in novice company he’ll have to give away a 6lbs penalty.
Back up to 3 miles will certainly suit. This 7 year old looks to have an absolutely massive engine and was just starting to come back at his rival late at Uttoxeter. He was a high quality operator over hurdles and showed himself very well in some decent classed events. Having only spent 1 season over timber it would appear that he plan has always been to send him chasing.
The market is currently earmarking Diomede Des Mottes as the main danger to the favourite, team Skelton’s runner won a maiden and a novice hurdle last season but his form tailed off in handicaps in the later stages of the season. We’ve not seen him over fences yet and he’s likely to need his first outing this year.
With The Butcher Said being the only experienced chaser in the field and can defy the penalty for his earlier success.
Another short-ish one has taken my fancy, this time over at Sedgefield with TO FLY FREE. David Pipe sends his 3 year old for a handicap against her elders for the first time after impressing on her most recent outing.
The young filly was well beaten on hurdle debut but soon got the swing of things on her second outing over timber and wasn’t beaten too far by a subsequent winner. Solider On Parade beat the selection by 2.5 lengths quite comfortably in the middle of August and has since defied the penalty next time out to beat a smart rival in Hiconic. The form has held up further as 3rd that day Historic Heart has also come out and won a juvenile hurdle since. He then wasn’t disgraced off a stiff mark of of 110 in handicap company either.
With the form of her last outing working out really well, our filly certainly looks well in off a mark of 98. As a 3-year-old she also gets an absolute massive 18lbs weight for age allowance. She only has to carry 10st6lbs instead of 11st10lbs. It’s a striking difference and a well tuned up 3-year-old can capitalise on the huge weight concession that they get.
Her form on the level wasn’t inspiring but she shaped with some real promise when last seen at Market Rasen. A move to handicaps is the right move as an opening handicap mark of 98 is low. Just Marvin looks to be the biggest threat having scored at Uttoxeter recently, but the concession of over a stone to a higher rated rival will probably ask him too much.
Profit/Loss MTD: -4.79
Profit/Loss YTD: -4.79
All of our tipsters use a 1pt-5pts staking system. Typically speaking, a 1pt tip would represent a bet where the tipster thinks the chances of winning are slightly better than the odds on offer, a 5pt bet would represent a bet where the odds represent a significant positive difference between the perceived chances of winning and the odds on offer. Everything in between is on a sliding scale between those two points.
How much you should stake on each point depends on your overall betting balance.